DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/16 10:52

DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/16 10:52

   Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures All Lower at Midday

   Corn futures are 14 to 16 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 
29 to 39 cents lower; and wheat futures are 5 to 8 cents lower. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

   Corn futures are 14 to 16 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 
29 to 39 cents lower; and wheat futures are 5 to 8 cents lower. The U.S. stock 
market is mixed with the DOW up 175 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 5 points 
lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mostly weaker with crude 
down 2.30. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading. Precious metals are 
weaker with gold $7.50 lower.

CORN:

   Corn futures are 14 to 16 cents lower at midday with active range-bound 
trade continuing to chop lower. There were some rains in the Western Corn Belt 
overnight with little fresh news on the weekly crop progress report and 
pressure from the energies. Short-term forecasts have the center of the belt 
drier with milder temperatures. Ethanol margins will continue to be limited by 
driving demand and seasonal slowdowns with unleaded futures finding support in 
recent days. Basis will be watched to see how much further strength fades, 
especially with the board rally and harvest starts in the South noting mixed to 
lower yields and aflatoxin concerns so far. Weekly USDA Crop Progress showed 1% 
to 57% good to excellent; poor to very poor unchanged at 16%; 94% silked versus 
97% on average; 62% in the dough versus 71% average; 16% dented versus 20% 
average. On the September chart support is the 20-day moving average at $6.05 
and the upper Bollinger Band is the next round up at $6.42. 

SOYBEANS:

   Soybean futures are 29 to 39 cents lower with trade fading back to nearby 
support levels as immediate weather concerns ease and questions remain about 
short-term demand. Meal is $13.00 to $14.00 lower and oil is 140 to 150 points 
lower. Biodiesel margins remain positive but narrowing in recent days. South 
America is on post-harvest footing for shipping with their advantage to persist 
until September. The daily export wire showed Mexico securing 228,606 metric 
tons (mt) of new crop. The bulk of the U.S. is heading into the start of 
pod-fill season with less-stressful weather this week. NOPA crush remained 
solid last month and is expected to hold up well until harvest. Basis has been 
more mixed as we head toward harvest. Weekly crop progress showed conditions 1 
percentage point lower on good to excellent at 58%; 12% poor to very poor; 93% 
blooming, equal to average; 74% setting pods versus 77% average. On the 
September soybean chart support is the 20-day moving average at $14.40, which 
we are well above, while November has faded through the 20-day moving average 
at $13.96, with the Upper Bollinger Band at $15.67, which we have faded from.

WHEAT:

   Wheat futures are 5 to 8 cents lower at midday with strength overnight and 
early in the day session turning to selling as row crops faded as wheat 
continues to carve out a near-term range. Plains weather looks for better 
short-term moisture with deficits needing to be eased ahead of planting. Spring 
wheat harvest should expand significantly this week. The dollar is rebounding a 
bit with mixed inflation ideas along with Black Sea potential still being 
watched as ships continue to trickle out of Ukraine along with Egypt, making 
some purchases without tenders while MATIF values fade a bit in low volume. 
Weekly crop progress should show winter wheat harvest at 90% complete versus 
94% on average; spring wheat 16% complete versus 35% on average; 64% good to 
excellent; 6% poor to very poor, unchanged. The KC September chart has support 
at the 20-day moving average of $8.62, which trade bounced off the last two 
sessions, with the Upper Bollinger band at $9.00, the next round up.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala




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